Dalal St Daily 25th JAN

GLOBAL MARKETS

  • U.S. markets closed flat but mixed.
  • On Friday when Indian markets ended Dow futures were down by 186 points but when the U.S. markets opened it recovered and closed with minor & flat negative territory, in fact NASDAQ closed in green.
  • DOW futures = +75
  • S&P 500 = +12
  • NASDAQ = +81
  • S&P 500 VIX down = 1.21%
  • The global markets are trading mixed.
  • KOSPI is up by 1.22%
  • This week we have to watch how the mother market will be in trading because most of the giant companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Tesla are coming out with their results.

 

DOMESTIC MARKETS

  • SGX Nifty is trading higher. Up by 115 points trading @ 14535.
  • As the global cues are trading positive we may have positive opening with regards to SGX. If we open negative then we are set to move more higher today. We may outperform the global markets.
  • On Friday Nifty closed 218 points lower and Bank Nifty closed 1000 points lower.
  • The selling was so huge from past 2 days Bank Nifty has fallen by nearly 1800 points in 2 days.
  • FII’s have started selling and have sold heavily on Friday. Due to FII selling heavily DII’s may stop selling heavily. FII’s are booking profits prior to the Budget to avoid the big event risk.
  • Our markets will be volatile until the budget, but there will be no direction bias in the market.
  • Globally markets are consolidating and we have also started consolidating but with volatility.
  • Reliance came out with results after the market hours on Friday. The results were in fact good but Reliance prices will not move based on the results because there are into so many business that only re ratings can move the prices of Reliance.
  • Reliance fell 2.5% on Friday when the markets closed but in GDR reliance actually fell by only 1%. So we can expect Reliance opening 1%-2% higher.
  • For our markets this week will be a week of BANKING & PHARMA STOCKS. Many small and large banks are coming out with results today.
  • The VIX is rising for the event of budget. Option prices are so high.
  • If budgets are coming in favor with optimism and expectations of the investors we may see consolidation or big candles which are ready for one more leg of the bull run. But if the budget fails to co-up with one scene and investors are not satisfied definitely the markets will get sold into and we may see the corrections.
  • So stay cautious while taking a directional view on budget day.

EARNINGS

  • TODAY – KOTAK BANK & LT
  • 26TH – PUBLIC HOLIDAY
  • 27TH – HUL, AXIS BANK, MARICO
  • 28TH – M&M FIN, COFORGE, RBL BANK, IDBI BANK, LUPIN, MARUTI
  • 29TH – DR.REDDY, UNION BANK, UPL, TATA MOTORS, WOCKPHARMA, MANAPURAM, LIC HSG FINANCE, SUNPHARMA, INDUS IND BANK
  • 30TH – TECHM, ICICI BANK

OI ANALYSIS


CALLS

  • Maximum CALL OI was seen at 15000 strikes.
  • Call writing was seen at 14500 strikes.
  • Call unwinding was seen @ 14000 strikes.

PUTS

  • Maximum PUT OI was seen at 14000 strikes.
  • Put writing was visible at 13800 strikes.
  • Put unwinding was seen at 14600 strikes.

TRADING RANGE


WEEK

  • NIFTY  futures may trade between 13787-15084
  • Bank Nifty may trade between 29300-33200 
TODAY
  • NIFTY futures may trade between 14095-14673
  • Bank Nifty may trade between 30300-32000

BUILT UP


  • Remember markets are moving because of these 4 LONG, LONG UNWINDING, SHORT, SHORT COVERING.
  • LONG- Bajaj Auto, TCS
  • SHORT – Biocon, RBL bank, Indusind bank.
  • LONG UNWINDING – Bajaj Finsrv, PEL, Manapurram, Bosch
  • SHORT COVERING – Wipro, HUL, Marico.

FII & DII DATA


  • FII have net sold for -635 Cr.
  • DII have net sold for -1290 Cr.

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