Dalal St Daily 12 th October

 GLOBAL MARKETS

  • Global markets closed bullish on Friday.
  • S&P 500 index climbed on Friday for third straight session. S&P 500 and NASDAQ registered their biggest weekly percentage gains since JULY as optimism over more federal fiscal aid grew.
  • US stocks inch higher on stimulus optimism.
  • DOW closed half a percent higher.
  • Friday's move was triggered by Mr. Donald Trump'saying he wanted an even bigger stimulus package than the 2.2 trillion dollar that house Democrats had been holding out for.
  • Since March, stock market bulls have produced a powerful rebound, including the best market performance in decades, encouraged by a vigorous economic recovery that's included some record data.
  • European shares record gains for second week.
  • European stocks posted a second consecutive week of gains on Friday, while investors kept an eye out of the sign of fresh US stimulus.
  • Dollar index is falling below 93 which is a good sign.
  • Crude Oil prices are down by 1.5 percent.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
  • Asian markets are mixed.
  • NIKKEI index is down by 86 points.
  • SGX Nifty opened lower by 8 but now trading above 12000.
  • Our markets are expected to open with positive start on Monday. Following the Global cues. 
  • On Friday SGX Nifty was trading near 11972 and where as our Indian markets have ended up higher gaining 79 points.
  • Profit booking may come at the psycological level of 12k
  • Profit booking may start at higher levels
  • Indian Markets are extremely bullish.
  • Nifty managed to close all the gap ups for 8 days and closed on a higher note. Which shows the power of bulls. 
  • Nifty rallied more than 1100 points with in 10 days. which means everyday for 10 straight trading session Nifty has rallied 110 points in average every day. And there is no worries if Nifty corrects a little bit.
  • Bank Nifty is still down by 1500 points from the recent high.
  • Nifty has moved 1100 points without the help of Reliance. If Reliance starts to turn bullish and Bank Nifty stocks start to rally, we can break the psycological levels 12000 easily, and target the next shift of resistance to 12500-12400
  • On Friday even though the markets opened higher Nifty slipped into negative territory during the first hour of the trade. But the Index sooon crawled back inside the positive zone and remained in the positive territory.
  • Major earnings events are coming this week from IT stocks.
  • Mind Tree, HCL Tech, Wipro are coming out with their results this week. The most important and index heavy weights Infosys, HDFC Bank, Reliance are coming out their results this week.
  • This week will be the week of IT sector.
  • From the technical perspective Nifty has formed a bullish candle on Daily time frame.
  • Some broad consolidation from current levels at higher levels may not be ruled out.
  • Options data suggests resistance in the 11900-12000 levels.
  • Over all the market has not shown signs of any weakness. Nifty has also not given any negative close, showing likely exhaustion of the trend. However, despite this, Nifty did not take any positional correction in this up move but it had took intraday corrections everyday. Market breadth is seen and some fatigue at current levels is also evident.
  • After 5th long session FII has turn net sellers on Friday and that is some point to be noted and taken into consideration. Even DII's did not buy much on Friday.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE WEEK ( 12-OCT-2020 / 16-OCT-2020 )
  • For this week expect NIFTY to trade between 11500-12400
  • And Bank Nifty may trade between 22400-25200.
And if the Bank Nifty rallies towards the upper range level and reliance strats rallying which is down by 100 points from its previous high Nifty has no exhaustion and it can easily touch 12400-12500 stiff resistance levels.


TRADING RANGE FOR MONDAY ( 12 - OCT - 2020 )

  • Nifty may trade between 11700-12200.
  • Bank Nifty may trade between  23200-24400.


OI ANALYSIS 


CALLS

  • Max CALL OI data stands @ 12500 with 20.7 lakh contracts.
  • Aggressive CALL writing was seen @12400 level.
  • CALL unwinding was seen @12000 level.
PUTS
  • Max PUTS OI data stands @11000 strike with 24 lakh contracts.
  • PUTS writing was seen @11900 level.
  • PUT unwinding was seen @11100 strike.

BUILT UP
  • Long Unwinding was seen in FMCG, Metal and Infra sector stocks.
  • Short Covering was seen in Cap_Goods, OIL, Power stocks.
  • Bank Nifty and Financial stocks are completely bullish and shown Long builtup.
  • Reliance, M&M, CIPLA, Dr.Reddy stocks experienced some Long unwinding.
FII AND DII ACTIVITY
  • After the 5th straight session of heavy buying of FII they have turned Net sellers on Friday.
  • FII have sold 39.93 Cr worth of shares.
  • DII have bought 125 Cr worth of shares.

EVENTS
  • CPI ( Consumer Price Inflation ) data is coming on Monday post market hours.
  • US core CPI data coming on Tuesday.
  • WIPRO is coming out with results on 13/10/2020 that is on Tuesday.
  •  Infosys are coming out with their results on Wednesday.
  • WPI ( whole sale price index inflation ) data is coming on Wednesday.
  • Mind Tree with their results on Thursday.
  • Reliance Industries coming with their result on Friday.
  • HCL TECH and HDFC BANK are coming with their results on Saturday i.e., on 17th OCT 20.
A WEEK OF IT STOCKS ;)


Trade Cautiously this week because market has already rallied by 1000 points and Nifty can not keep on closing 100 points higher everyday, and that does not mean from now on Nifty will fall and short the markets. Nifty may take some breath from here and may correct and may not correct and continue to show its bullishness in the future trading sessions also.
i'm expecting the correction in today and tomorrow. Nifty may Consolidate also. 
Reason for this view :- there was no positional correction in the index and 10 continuous session opened gap up and closed higher, these volatile movements may take some rest in coming sessions.





THANK YOU

SHARATH

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Dalal St Daily 25th September

  GLOBAL MARKETS US markets ended up green.  US markets were stuck in a volatile range for most of the part in yesterday's session and profit booking came @ higher levels. At the opening US markets fell 48 points as initial jobless cliams data shown rising figures and recovered during the session. Dollar Index is rising above 94. SGX Nifty opened higher. SGX Nifty is up by 83 points. Crude oil prices are trading 1% higher. Japan's Nekkai opened and trading 0.5% higher. Asian markets are up. DOMESTIC MARKERS A sell off in global markets and fear in rising corona virus infections and fear of lockdown led the blood bath on Dalal St. Yesterday Nifty openend lower and continued to tank without making any high. open and high was same. Nifty tanked about 300 points and closed @10805. & BankNifty fell for more than 700 points and ended up below 20500. FII pulled out 1800Cr from cash market and in the after noon session they were aggressively selling. But, our DII's were so exha...
Read more

Dalal Street Daily 23rd September

US markets ended up in positive territory. After "Quadruple Witching Day" US markets saw some cooldown in volatility.  Brent Crude is up by 1% Dollar Index hit 94. SGX Nifty opened flat. Asian markets are mixed.  India VIX is not rising but decreasing which shows panic in the market is not much strong. That doesn't mean market will rise, but the fall from here is less. The correction in the market is healthy and this correction may end any moment. Being the monthly and weekly expiry week the markets are too volatile. FII's become net sellers for two straight sessions, and DII's after selling for 10 consecutive sessions yesterday they have become net buyers. FII have sold shares worth 2000 Cr and DII have bought shares worth 800 Cr. Broader market closed in red. Yesterday's nifty open & high was same which showed some weakness in the market. some institutional activity was seen in 2nd half of the market. Nifty has closed below its 50 D EMA which shows some ...
Read more

Dalal St Daily 21st september 2020

    US markets ended in the negative territory for third straight session on Friday. Investors started   to dump on high flying tech stocks. Apple is almost down by 20% from it’s recent highs. Not      everything lasts for long, something must start after the end of the other. All markets have been  correcting heavily to show up some big momentum is coming ahead in time. Bulls are taking some power nap and may awake anytime. ·          Dollar index is weakening which is not a good sign for Indian stock markets. ·          When US markets breaking it’s all time highs our markets was still down 5-6% and was not aggressive but struggling compared to US markets. forget about banknifty it has still recovered only half of its fall. But Asian markets reacted heavily for the fall in US markets. ·          On Thursday when the news ...
Read more